DecisionBranch

Accept a job offer decision tree template

Stay put or take the new role?

Use this template
RecommendedAccept the offerExpected value 1,810,000 · 210,000 ahead of Stay in current role

The tree

Accept the new job offer?25%55%20%40%60%Accept the new job offer?EV 1,810,000→ Accept the offerAccept the offerEV 1,810,000Company grows, equity pays…2,400,000Company steady1,800,000Company struggles, laid of…1,100,000Stay in current roleEV 1,600,000Promoted next year1,750,000Not promoted1,500,000

Outline

# Analytical, 3-year total compensation
Accept the new job offer?
  Accept the offer
    Company grows, equity pays out (p 0.25): 2400000
    Company steady (p 0.55): 1800000
    Company struggles, laid off in year 2 (p 0.2): 1100000
  Stay in current role
    Promoted next year (p 0.4): 1750000
    Not promoted (p 0.6): 1500000

How to use it

  1. Press Use this template. The tree opens in the editor, no account needed.
  2. Edit the outline on the left. Indentation is the tree; (p 0.4) is a probability, (cost 5000) a cost, : 200000 a payoff.
  3. Watch the expected value and the recommended branch update as you type. Open Analysis for the risk profile and the switch points.