Job offer decision tree template
A new offer versus the job you have. The offer pays more today and carries equity that may or may not be worth anything; staying carries a promotion chance and less risk.
The tree
The decision in plain words
The options
Accept the offer, or stay in the current role. Each has two or three ways the next three years could go.
The uncertainties
At the new company: growth with an equity payout, steady, or struggling with a layoff. In the current role: promoted next year or not.
The numbers
Three-year total compensation including equity at its expected value. Money is not the whole decision, so put a number on what the job means to you and add it to the payoffs; the tree handles it the same way.
The result
Accept the offer, with an expected value of 1,810,000, 210,000 ahead of Stay in current role.
Where it flips. If the payoff for company steady (Accept the offer) falls below 1,418,182 (it is 1,800,000 now), Stay in current role wins instead.
- Chance of a loss
- 0%
- Best case
- 2,400,000
- Worst case
- 1,100,000
Change these numbers first
- The payoff for company steady (Accept the offer): the answer flips at 1,418,182 (now 1,800,000).
- The payoff for not promoted (Stay in current role): the answer flips at 1,850,000 (now 1,500,000).
- The payoff for promoted next year (Stay in current role): the answer flips at 2,275,000 (now 1,750,000).
The closer a switch point is to your estimate, the more that estimate deserves a second look.
The tree as text
# Analytical, 3-year total compensation
Accept the new job offer?
Accept the offer
Company grows, equity pays out (p 0.25): 2400000
Company steady (p 0.55): 1800000
Company struggles, laid off in year 2 (p 0.2): 1100000
Stay in current role
Promoted next year (p 0.4): 1750000
Not promoted (p 0.6): 1500000Related templates
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- Build vs buy softwareBuild in-house or buy off the shelf? Compare the expected cost of each path, including overrun risk, and see which wins.
Go deeper
- Personal decisions — how people in this situation use DecisionBranch
- How to make a simple decision tree
- How to make a decision tree
- Expected value and decision trees
- Analysis calculator: paste this tree and see the working, step by step
Make this decision your own.
Open the template, change the options and numbers, and the best option updates as you type.